Regulatory moves, rate cases, capacity market shifts, and competitive supply developments across every major U.S. ISO. Curated for the people who actually trade, schedule, and manage energy portfolios.
DOE filed at FERC Wednesday urging PJM to rework its reliability backstop so large loads, not households, fund the new supply they need. FERC already put the 6.8 GW procurement on hold after flagging cost allocation. PJM refiles by Oct. 29, and the 2028/29 shortfall stays open until then.
Analysts say planners are fixated on flexible access to existing wires and skipping faster options like high-capacity conductors. All six operators FERC ordered to speed large-load interconnection have asked for more time. PJM, which could see 70% of U.S. data center growth, got an extension to Nov. 16.
Wednesday's peak ran 2.0% over the 71,800 MW forecast. Today's forecast peak is 75,500 MW and tomorrow's is 74,600 MW. Wind stays low until it returns Sunday, so evening net load is the pinch point.
Gas gained about 1.7% ahead of the EIA print. The market expects 82 Bcf for the week ended Oct. 2, under the 96 Bcf five-year average. Near-record output and end-October storage near 3,985 Bcf cap the rally, while cooler northern weather and low European storage support it.
ISO-NE walked stakeholders through last-minute changes to the CAR-SA package, and stakeholders pushed for their own amendments. Votes come in November. The outcome sets how New England capacity gets valued and paid.
Gov. Healey is steering alternative compliance payments toward heating assistance and cutting Alternative Portfolio Standard costs 50%, about $20 million of relief. Heating oil averaged $6.12 a gallon last week, up roughly 75% from a year ago. Expect winter cost politics to stay loud in New England.
For U.S. projects coming online in 2026, batteries run 65% to 75% cheaper than new open-cycle gas peakers. Turbine prices are headed to $600/kW by the end of 2027, with backlogs of 35 to 116 GW. Batteries soak up peak demand that gas plants used to serve.
FirstEnergy's Monongahela Power filed a complaint over PJM advance-scheduling gas units during the extreme cold last winter. The utility says the commitments cost its customers $145 million. It adds to the pile of cost allocation fights at PJM.
A group of developers filed a FERC complaint saying the study's method produced interconnection costs high enough to sink projects. If the costs stand, new supply gets delayed or cancelled. That keeps New England tight.
Lt. Gov. Hashmi called the deal "not in the best interest of Virginians," the most formal pushback from the state's executive branch yet. The governor is still only "skeptical." The SCC holds local hearings this week, the evidentiary hearing starts Nov. 17, and the review clock is still in dispute.
The aggregator already runs more than 8 million smart thermostats. It bought Smartcar to pull EVs in, and will bundle HVAC, EVs, batteries and solar into one dispatchable block. More flexible load on call is the kind of supply that shaves peak-hour prices.
Lower gas prices are expected to cut heating spending at gas-heated homes by roughly 9%. Electricity prices are forecast to rise, lifting bills about 4% for the 40%-plus of homes that heat with power. Temperatures look similar to last winter, with a warmer Northeast and a much colder West.
Tuesday's peak beat the 69,400 MW forecast by a wide margin. Forecast peaks are 71,800 MW today and 73,800 MW tomorrow. The weekly average is tracking 57.8 GW, below last week, and wind stays low through the week with little rain in the outlook.
November futures rose 1.3 cents to $3.048. Storage slipped to 1.8% above the five-year average from 2.4% a week ago. LNG feedgas is tracking 17.6 Bcf a day with Freeport ramping, while a Kentucky pipeline outage dragged output toward a four-month low.
Constellation will uprate 11 units across Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey under a 20-year deal, with the first megawatts due in 2028. It adds a 15-year, 2,700 MW supply agreement and $4.3 billion of investment. That's real new supply, but PJM is still about 6.8 GW short and capacity sits at the cap, so don't expect relief soon.
Two projects won the first round: 400 MW/1,600 MWh at Chalk Point and 40 MW/160 MWh at Jade Meadow III, on 15-year terms. The shortfall reflects PJM's tight capacity market, with prices pinned at the $325/MW-day ceiling. The batteries will shave peaks once online, which pushes PJM peak prices down.
Filings on Oct. 5 mostly support MISO's proposal to fast-track about 71 GW of legacy projects. It allows penalty-free exits before Decision Point II on Oct. 20 and lifts the withdrawal cost threshold from 35% to 50%. One IPP objected. Faster interconnection means more supply reaching the Midwest sooner.
Front month sits at $3.08 with $3.10 the first resistance and $3.00 the floor. U.S. LNG exports hit 10.9 million tons in September, with 54% going to Europe, and Freeport is recovering toward 1.9 Bcf a day of feedgas. Export pull is carrying the tape, and the bias stays constructive above $3.00.
NYISO's 2026 Reliability Needs Assessment says aging plants are no longer the main worry. Retirements, big new data center loads and intermittent renewables will outweigh the grid's positives by 2032. That points to tighter reserves and firmer prices in New York.
Constellation and Amazon signed a 20-year deal for 690 MW from Calvert Cliffs, including 190 MW of new capacity due between 2030 and 2032. It backs more than $3 billion of plant investment and a 20-year relicense. Existing megawatts move to a tech buyer and only the 190 MW is new supply, so don't expect it to move PJM prices soon.
The Large Load Addition Resource Study would cover loads above 200 MW paired with generation in the same local resource zone. Pairs must stay connected for 15 years, and MISO wants FERC sign-off by Dec. 2 for a first study cycle in early 2027. It's a MISO item, but it shows where large-load rules are headed across the Midwest and PJM.
Sunday's peak was just 60,263 MW after rain, 2.2% under forecast. Today's forecast climbs to 67,500 MW and tomorrow's to 68,600 MW. Wind stays weak this week, so the weekly average generation estimate drops to about 57 GW from 65.7 GW last week.
The plan leans on capacity auction reforms, new large-load rules and a dynamic operating reserve product. It also carries Order 1920 compliance and longer-term transmission planning. It tells you where the next round of New England market rule changes will land.
Gross withdrawals set an all-time high, with Permian wells adding about 1.7 Bcf a day in a month. The Hugh Brinson Pipeline started interstate flows early and opened more takeaway to Gulf Coast LNG. More supply with a bigger outlet keeps pressure on Henry Hub.
Peak load hit 66,732 MW against a 73,300 MW forecast, with a daily average of 60,110 MW. Forecasts step down to 63,800 MW Friday and 62,000 MW Saturday. Cooler weather and better solar next week keep the prompt market soft.
Newsom signed SB 913 and SB 905. One makes the CPUC set a value for stored power sold back at peak. The other pushes utilities to shift load off their tightest circuits. It's CAISO, not a tracked market, but it's the template for how flexibility gets paid and it softens peak prices where it spreads.
Stakeholders in ISO-NE and PJM say the deal would concentrate market power and push costs onto ratepayers. State regulators, grid operators and market monitors are all weighing in. Nothing is decided, so treat it as a watch item for bilateral pricing in both pools.
PJM stakeholders endorsed a term sheet that would give states more say in how the RTO runs. State officials and consumer advocates say it falls short. Who sets capacity and large-load rules is still unsettled, and that keeps pricing risk on the table.
November futures slipped 0.6 cents to $3.02. Lower 48 output held at 113.3 Bcf a day in September, matching August's record, and LNG feedgas climbed to 17.9 Bcf a day even with Cove Point in maintenance. Analysts looked for a 64 Bcf build, light against the 80 Bcf five-year norm, but supply is outrunning the pull.
The New York Power Authority is partnering with EDF Power Solutions on Rich Road Solar. It's NYPA's largest solar build since its 2023 mandate and its first public-private deal. Construction starts in late 2027 and power flows by 2030, so this is a long-dated supply add, not a price signal for the next few winters.
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